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Wednesday, 2024 December 25th
issue 15

The 21st-century Collapse of the American Labor Force

This is an update to one of the graphs and some of the observations in The 21st-century Cratering of US Labor Force Participation .


US Labor Force Participation (by year), 1947-2024* the percentage in each year (the average throughout the year) from 1947-2023 and the first 11 months of 2024 of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over in the United States who are participants in the labor force ’47 ’48 ’49 1950 ’51 ’52 ’53 ’54 1955 ’56 ’57 ’58 ’59 1960 ’61 ’62 ’63 ’64 1965 ’66 ’67 ’68 ’69 1970 ’71 ’72 ’73 ’74 1975 ’76 ’77 ’78 ’79 1980 ’81 ’82 ’83 ’84 1985 ’86 ’87 ’88 ’89 1990 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 1995 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 2000 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 2005 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 2010 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 2015 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 2020 ’21 ’22 ’23 * 68% 68% 67% 67% 66% 66% 65% 65% 64% 64% 63% 63% 62% 62% 61% 61% 60% 60% 59% 59% 58% 58% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% * first 11 months of 2024 source:   Household Data; Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age, Not seasonally adjusted Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm 1947 to 2024 annual averages,   Series titles:   (Unadj) Population Level, (Unadj) Civilian Labor Force Level, (Unadj) Not in Labor Force Division of Labor Force Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Copyright 2024 The Cool Publication Company.

We note here that the final year of the 20th century was also the final one in a four-year period during which the growth of the US labor force participation rate was stalled.   When this plateau was reached, in 1997, the percentage of adult Americans in the labor force got to its highest level in recorded history: 67.10%.   Out of 203,133,000 adults — the total civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over in the United States — 136,296,000 were participating in the labor force.   That was also the highest absolute number ever, up to that time, of Americans in the labor force.   Before dropping from this plateau, it shrunk by only a hundredth of a percent in each of those latter three years in that period.

Then, to start the new millennium, the Crash of ’01 began the first wave of Great Depression II.   In just four years, the labor force fell more than a percent — to below 66% for the first time since 1988, from when it had taken nine years to climb to its height.

It stayed at this lower plateau until 2008.   Next, in the Second Great Depression’s second wave, it plunged three and a third percent in only seven years — to under 62 and two thirds percent: the lowest point since 1977, 38 years before.

Over the next four years, it rose less than half a percent and stood at only 63.10%.   Then in the 2020 Crash that ushered in the third wave of Great Depression II, it plummeted a percent and a third in just the one year — to only 61 and three quarters percent.   America’s labor force participation hadn’t been below 62% since 1976, 44 years earlier.

And for the first time in US history, the following year, on average throughout 2021, more than 100,000,000 American adults were out of the labor force.   In 2023, the last full year on record, the participation rate had only gotten up to 62.60% — still the lowest, prior to the start of the Second Great Depression, since 1977, 46 years prior to that.   And 99,826,000 adults remained outside the labor force.

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Then in 2024, the number of those not participating rose again.   The total of those not in the labor force has gone back above a hundred million again — with the average for the first 11 months of the year being at 100,335,000.   (And the rate of those participating, through November, rose only three hundredths of a percent: to 62.63%.)

Our founders bequeathed to us the dream of the shining city on the hill — a society in which the entire populace could be given the opportunity to work for a life of decency and prosperity and to contribute to their nation and to all of humankind.   The American dream was that of a beacon to the huddled masses and wretched refuse of the rest of the world’s teeming shores.

With a hundred million adults kept from the opportunity to be part of the labor force, what is the total number of Americans in all those families who are today among the wretched refuse of our own teeming shores?

What has become of this dream that was our treasured inheritance?

Has someone stolen our American dream and replaced it with some pettier dream of meager worth?

Are Americans capable of redeeming the dream that was the precious legacy passed down to us?

(There will be more to come on this.)

We can look at the decline in America’s employment too.

[ graph by the editor ]

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