Hick Planet magazine
tryna find the grownups table on a hick planet
an unperiodical:
on arts, endeavors, musings, sites, sights, & other senses
Sunday, 2021 January 17th
issue 9

the 3rd wave of Great Depression II
The 21st-century Cratering of US Labor Force Participation

by  Fred Krumbein

As we see in the graph on Labor Force Growth ( the underlying data ), from the early 1960s to the late ’90s, there were never back-to-back years with negative growth.   There was positive growth over the previous year in 30 of the 34 years from 1964 through 1997.   And in the four years that were exceptions to this (1971, ’75, ’91, and ’93), the decline averaged 0.17% per year.   [*2] [*1]


US Labor Force Growth (year over year), 1950-2020 the growth in each year in the percentage (the average throughout the year) from 1950-2020 over the percentage of the previous year of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over in the United States who are participants in the labor force 1950 ’51 ’52 ’53 ’54 1955 ’56 ’57 ’58 ’59 1960 ’61 ’62 ’63 ’64 1965 ’66 ’67 ’68 ’69 1970 ’71 ’72 ’73 ’74 1975 ’76 ’77 ’78 ’79 1980 ’81 ’82 ’83 ’84 1985 ’86 ’87 ’88 ’89 1990 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 1995 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 2000 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 2005 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 2010 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 2015 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 2020 1% .5% 0% -.5% -1% -1.5%

After flattening out at the end of the millennium, there was negative growth in 13 of the first 15 years of the century.   And in the only years with positive growth (2005 and ’06), the average was 0.095% a year.

We can take note of this almost uninterrupted growth for a third of a century shown in the graph on Labor Force Participation.   The labor force grew from 58.68% of the civilian noninstitutional populace at least 16 years old in 1963 to 67.10% in 1997.

It then plateaued in the final four years of the 20th century.


US Labor Force Participation (by year), 1949-2020 the percentage in each year (the average throughout the year) from 1949-2020 of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over in the United States who are participants in the labor force ’49 1950 ’51 ’52 ’53 ’54 1955 ’56 ’57 ’58 ’59 1960 ’61 ’62 ’63 ’64 1965 ’66 ’67 ’68 ’69 1970 ’71 ’72 ’73 ’74 1975 ’76 ’77 ’78 ’79 1980 ’81 ’82 ’83 ’84 1985 ’86 ’87 ’88 ’89 1990 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 1995 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 2000 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 2005 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 2010 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 2015 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 2020 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% 59% 58% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

The labor force grew from under 66 percent in nine years, from 1988 (65.90%), to its height above 67 percent, in ’97 (67.10%), an increase of 0.13% a year on average.

In the first wave of Great Depression II, the size of the labor force fell in four years back down almost to the 1988 level, from a little over 67 percent in 2000 (67.07%) to just below 66 percent in ’04 (65.99%), an average drop of more than a quarter of a percent each year.

It remained at that plateau for five years.

Then the Second Great Depression’s second wave hit; this second wave is sometimes referred to as the Great Recession.

    THE READER IS INVITED TO TAKE NOTE OF THIS MESSAGE







Wright Electrical Products





SERVING BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS


THROUGHOUT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA SINCE 1963



READY TO HELP YOU SERVE THE NEEDS OF YOUR CUSTOMERS IN THESE TRYING TIMES





over    25,000   parts    in    stock




FOR THE WRIGHT CONNECTION


call Doug: 916-267-5554






The labor force had grown from a little above 63 percent in the decade from 1978 (63.15%) to a bit beneath 66 percent in ’88 (65.90%), an increase averaging 0.28% a year.

In the second wave of Great Depression II, the labor force size cratered well under 63 percent, in the seven years ending in 2015 (62.65%), from right below 66 percent, where it had been hovering up until ’08 (65.99%), an average fall of almost half a percent per year, putting it beneath the level in 1978.

The next four years culminated in a labor force participation rise in 2019 of close to a quarter percent, bringing the average increase for that time to 0.11% in each year.

And of course this last year saw the arrival of the third wave of the Second Great Depression, in which the size of the labor force plummeted 1.35%, making it the lowest since 1976, 45 years ago.   The 34-year-long increase of 8.42% from 1963 to ’97 has been followed by the decrease so far over the 20 years from 2000 to ’20 of 5.32%.

We also take a look at the foundational factor that can enable, bolster, and build up labor force participation or that can lead to its decline and demise.

The 21st-century Collapse of American Job Growth

[ graphs by the author ]

home   cover   contents   archives   indices   masthead

Copyright 2021 The Cool Publication Company.