Hick Planet magazine
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Sunday, 2021 January 17th
issue 9

the 3rd wave of Great Depression II
The 21st-century Collapse of American Job Growth

by  Fred Krumbein

We may take note in the graph on Job Growth ( the underlying data ) that from the mid 1960s to the beginning of the new millenium, there were only two times, each lasting for two years, when there was negative growth in one year over the decade ended in the previous year.   There was positive growth over the just-ended decade in 33 of the 37 years from 1965 through 2001.   And in the four years comprising the two occasions of back-to-back years with negative growth over that decade that had just ended (1975, ’76, ’82, and ’83), the decline averaged 0.55% per year.   [*2] [*1]


US Job Growth (year over decade), 1959-2020 the growth in each year in the percentage (the average throughout the year) from 1959-2020 over the percentage (the average throughout the decade) of the previous decade (the decade ended in the previous year) from 1949-1958 — 2010-2019 of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over in the United States who are employed ’59 1960 ’61 ’62 ’63 ’64 1965 ’66 ’67 ’68 ’69 1970 ’71 ’72 ’73 ’74 1975 ’76 ’77 ’78 ’79 1980 ’81 ’82 ’83 ’84 1985 ’86 ’87 ’88 ’89 1990 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 1995 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 2000 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 2005 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 2010 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 2015 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 2020 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4%

After the first year of the century, there was negative growth in each of the following 15 years.

We see that there was overall growth for three and two thirds decades in the graph on Employment (by year).   This overall job growth was from 55.35% of the civilian noninstitutional populace at least 16 years old employed in 1963 to 64.40% in 2000.

During that period, there were four times, the first two of which lasting for two years each and the latter ones of which lasting for three years each, when there was negative growth in each year over the previous year.   The first such occasion in 1970 and ’71, comprising a drop with an average of 0.70% in each year, was followed by only two years of positive growth averaging a 0.62% rise in each year.

The other occasions each came before more than three years of positive growth: in 1974 and ’75, a drop having an average of 0.89% in each year, being followed by four years of positive growth with an average of a 0.97% increase per year; in 1980 to ’82, a decrease averaging 0.72% per year, coming before seven years of positive growth having an average of a 0.74% rise in each year; and in 1990 to ’92, a fall with an average of 0.50% in each year, having nine years of positive growth after it averaging a 0.33% increase each year.


US Employment (by year), 1949-2020 the percentage in each year (the average throughout the year) from 1949-2020 of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over in the United States who are employed ’49 1950 ’51 ’52 ’53 ’54 1955 ’56 ’57 ’58 ’59 1960 ’61 ’62 ’63 ’64 1965 ’66 ’67 ’68 ’69 1970 ’71 ’72 ’73 ’74 1975 ’76 ’77 ’78 ’79 1980 ’81 ’82 ’83 ’84 1985 ’86 ’87 ’88 ’89 1990 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 1995 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 2000 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 2005 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 2010 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 2015 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 2020 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Employment grew from under 62 and a half percent in 12 years, from 1988 (62.28%) to its height at close to 64 and a half percent in 2000 (64.40%), an increase averaging 0.18% a year.

In the first wave of Great Depression II, the percentage of those employed fell in three years right back down to the 1988 level, from the high in 2000 (64.40%) to back below 62 and a half percent in ’03 (again at 62.28%), an average drop of 0.71% a year.

It began to climb out of this trough for three years and plateaued for another year, with an average increase of 0.18% a year.

Then the Second Great Depression’s second wave hit; sometimes this second wave is called the Great Recession.

The percentage of those employed had gone up about a percent and two thirds in just the single year from its level in 1983 (57.88%).   And employment had then grown from a bit over 59 and a half percent in the half decade from 1984 (59.53%) to a little below 63 percent in ’89 (62.95%), an increase of 0.68% a year on average.

In the second wave of Great Depression II, job growth collapsed, with employment plunging below 59 and a third percent, in the two years ending in 2009 (59.32%), from right about 63 percent where it had hovered for a year till ’07 (62.99%), an average fall of 1.84% per year, putting it well beneath the level in 1984, 25 years earlier.   And the next year, it fell another 0.85% to below 58 and a half percent in 2010 (58.47%).

It remained relatively flat there for another three years and then started to dig out of this second trough, climbing to a bit over 60 and three quarters percent over the next six years, to its 2019 level (60.78%), with an average increase of 0.37% each year.

And of course in this last year, Great Depression II’s third wave arrived, in which the percentage of those employed plummeted more than four percent to the 2020 level (56.77%), putting it lower than in 1976, 45 years ago.   The 37-year-long increase of 9.05% from 1963 to 2000 has been followed by the decrease so far over the 20 years from 2000 to ’20 of 7.63%.  

In the graph on Employment (by year & by decade), we now look at a broader benchmark to see the foundation of job growth that will have been built up, so as to examine the baseline that has been layed down and that can be further built upon.   Here we see not just the employment for each year but also for each decade, and these are the foundational baselines that each year’s employment levels are benchmarked against in the graph on Job Growth (year over decade).


US Employment (by year & by decade), 1949-2020 the percentage in each year (the average throughout the year) from 1949-2020 and the percentage in each decade (the average throughout the decade) from 1949-1958 — 2011-2020 of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over in the United States who are employed ’49 1950 ’51 ’52 ’53 ’54 1955 ’56 ’57 ’58 ’59 1960 ’61 ’62 ’63 ’64 1965 ’66 ’67 ’68 ’69 1970 ’71 ’72 ’73 ’74 1975 ’76 ’77 ’78 ’79 1980 ’81 ’82 ’83 ’84 1985 ’86 ’87 ’88 ’89 1990 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 1995 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 2000 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 2005 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 2010 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 2015 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 2020 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

We can see that in decades covering the mid-196th to mid-197th decade through those extending from the early-200th to early-201st decade—other than during plateaus in which the difference was no more than 1/100 of 1%—there was no negative growth in any decade ending in one year over the decade ending in the previous year.

There was positive growth of each decade ending in one year over the decade ending in the previous year in 34 of these single-year-offset decades out of the 38 such decades, from the decade 1956-1965 through the decade 1994-2003.   And there were three plateaus (the one comprising the first three single-year-offset decades in this period, 1956-1965 through 1958-1967, when employment hovered around 55.97%; another in 1965-1974 through 1967-1976, when employment hovered around 57.24%; and one in 1973-1982 and 1974-1983, when there was 58.17% employment in both).

After another plateau in the early part of the century, there was negative growth of each decade ending in one year over the decade ending in the previous year in 13 of these single-year-offset decades out of the 14 most recent such decades, from the decade 1997-2006 through the decade 2011-2020.

    THE READER IS INVITED TO TAKE NOTE OF THIS MESSAGE







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We see that there was overall growth for more than three and three quarters decades.   This overall job growth was from 55.97% of the civilian noninstitutional populace at least 16 years old employed in the decade 1956-1965 to 63.38% in the decade 1994-2003.

Employment grew from 59 and a half percent in 16 years, from the decade 1978-1987 (59.50%), to its height at more than 63 and a third percent, in the decade 1994-2003 (63.38%), an increase averaging 0.24% a year.

During the Second Great Depression, the percentage of those employed fell in 15 years right back down below the level of the decade 1978-1987, from the high in the decade 1994-2003 (63.38%) to well below 59 and a half percent in the decade 2009-2018 (59.19%), an average drop of 0.27% a year.   It climbed by 0.15% to 59 and a third percent in the decade 2010-2019 (59.34%) and then settled right back down in the decade 2011-2020 (59.19% again).

The 38-year-long increase of 7.41% from the decade 1956-1965 to the decade 1994-2003 has been followed by the decrease so far over the 17 years from the decade 1994-2003 to the decade 2011-2020 of 4.04%.

We also take a look at another foundation of the economy which can be enabled, bolstered, and built up by positive job growth or the decline and demise of which negative job growth can lead to.

The 21st-century Cratering of US Labor Force Participation

[ graphs by the author ]

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